Adu Subramanian's Blog

So UC-Berkeley is online for Spring 2021 AGAHGAHGAHGAHAGGA FUCKFUCKFUCK WHY WHY WHY.  That was my first reaction but immediately after that I wrote an email (rant) to my parents describing my feelings towards the move to the online semester. It is copied below:  I just.....the way they word it, it seems as if nothing is going to be open....ever. I am frustrated and slightly angry, not just at whatever high power that caused the pandemic, but the handling of the situation by everyone from the top to the bottom. Some part of me wants to blame Trump and verbally reprimand those who dissent based on the perceived morality of saving lives (like most people on my Instagram feed and in the primary news media, gah an echochamber im disgusted). But an ever growing part of me wonders what the data behind these decisions are. A NYT tracker of Covid cases notes that  " at least  130,000  cases and at least  70  deaths since the pandemic began. Most of the cases ha...

The FDA panel schedule for OCtober 7th was postponed, but I still have confidence in the long term story, However, I do not expect much price movement upwards until that panel happens and/or approval for the system is granted. The OCS works as mentioned before and now it is a matter of waiting for approval from the FDA. Some may even view the delay as a positive to allow more collaboration between the company and the FDA, thus increasing their chances of approval. The company sure sounded upbeat about the delay.    Nothing has changed about the underlying tech and the strong cash position TMDX is in: still a buyer. 

Summary: Transmedics is the maker of organ preservation systems to extend the life of organs for transplants. Organ transplantation has suffered with low usage rates due to a lack of effective preservation techniques, but Transmedics' organ care system solves this issue and effectively expands the market for organs. With an upcoming FDA panel for their OCS heart system on October 7, I believe the stock is undervalued at current levels and has a positive catalyst coming soon. Product The current standard of care for organ transportation cold storage, effectively a cooler for organs. Under this method, only 2-3 organs thoracic organs are used out of every 10 donated and there is a 30-35% post-transplant complication rate. Their organ care system (OCS) has shown a significant increase in organ utilization to ~8/10 organs and an improvement in the post-transplant complication rate to 14%(source: company presentation). While typically organs are thrown into a cooler, TMDX used warm perf...

Podcasts – Josh Brown with Micheal Batnick on the Compound show , “It even sounds like a scam. Nikola Tesla’s last name was taken so they decided to go with his first. What’s his middle name, Seymour???” People I MostlyAdmire – Kerwin Charles – “You never know where an insight will come from” The Economist Radio, Checks and Balance: Suburban Brawl – all about the suburban voter’s importance in the upcoming election. Freakonomics Radio on what socialism is and how the NFL has dealt with the pandemic . Rory Sutherlandon Infinite Loops – “If it was logical, someone would have done it” Articles – Alex Caruso: the Lebron of Playing with Lebron – Wall Street Journal Obviousthings that are easy to ignore – Morgan Housel Storm Coming – John Cochrane Books – Animal Spirits by Akerlof and Shiller A quick macroeconomic take - I am planning on rebalancing my portfolio in the next month by selling some high growth and big tech names, trimming my profits on any long term capital...

  Animal Spirits, Why Psychology matters in Macroeconomics Today I finished the book “Animal Spirits” written by George Akerlof (hey, Berkeley faculty) and Robert Shiller. I will go through a quick summary followed by my thoughts on the book as a whole Summary The premise of the book is quite simple: macroeconomic theory is based on a set of obtuse assumptions, thus lessening the validity of such a theory. Shiller and Akerlof use data and anecdotes to originate a new set of driving forces for economies today, the titular ‘animal spirits’ first referenced by John Meynard Keynes. They breakdown animal spirits into the following five categories which, when analyzed in sum with macroeconomic theory provide a framework for thinking about macroeconomics 1.        Confidence: recessions are in large part due to a los of consumer and business confidence which decreases spending and output. The reverse also holds true 2.     ...

  Semler Scientific (SMLR:OTCPK) is a small cap medical device company that sells QuantaFlo, an FDA-approved device for diagnosing Peripheral Artery Disease. Peripheral artery disease (PAD) PAD is a disease where blood flow is obstructed in blood vessels in the extremities via a buildup of plaque. Due to an uptick in obesity and unhealthy habits, the prevalence of PAD in the population has quadrupled in the last 50 years. It is asymptomatic in 90% of people which makes diagnosis difficult. PAD is a precursor to numerous sever cardiovascular conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, and amputations. People with PAD have a 21% risk of having a heart attack, stroke or other hospitalization due to cardiovascular complications. People with PAD are 2-3x more likely to have a stroke and 4x more likely to have a heart attack. ~50% of all amputees in the USA have had PAD. Product Overview: QuantaFlo QuantaFlo uses a clamp attached to both feet and hands to measure blood flow via in...